Bitcoin eyes breakout toward ATH as 50bps Fed rate cut odds climb to 17%

Markets are anticipating a 30 basis point easing in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision, with Bitcoin potentially reaching all-time highs in the event of a 50 basis point rate cut. The decision is influenced by job revisions, inflation data, and the yield curve, with different scenarios impacting various asset classes. The market predicts two to three interest rate cuts in 2025 with a slower pace in 2026. If growth weakens, more cuts are likely. If inflation rises, there may be a tolerance for higher core rates. The Cleveland Fed’s neutral estimate suggests policy above neutral prevents financial collapse. Decision factors include interest rate projections, labor market trends, yield trajectory, and dollar movement. The outcome could be a cautious cut or a larger adjustment based on labor data.