Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a fourth quarter influenced by Federal Reserve cuts and ETF demand. Markets are expecting a September policy move after weak jobs data. The dollar is trading low, gold is high, and futures markets predict a September cut. History shows that ETF flows can impact prices, with potential for significant flows in Q4 depending on Fed rate cuts. Options on Ethereum ETFs also play a role in market dynamics. The Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker shows expectations for multiple interest rate cuts in 2025-2026, which could lead to lower volatility for inflows. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could be impacted by ETF flows and interest rate paths. By monitoring FedWatch probabilities, ETF flows, and FOMC decisions, investors can assess potential price movements.

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