Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is now the favorite on political betting markets to be the first Trump cabinet member to leave, with odds jumping due to backlash over her defense of fatal shootings in Minnesota. Republicans, including Sens. Tillis and Murkowski, have called for her to step down, signaling a shift in support for her leadership. Democrats are split on whether her exit would change immigration policy. There is a 32% chance she will leave by March 31 and a 24% chance she will be impeached by the end of 2026.

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